The Holiday Rush Is Over. The Bills Aren’t.

If you are reading this in November, the holiday rush may still be ahead for many of your clients. That is exactly why now is the time to talk about January. This is a November planning conversation about the month after the rush, when holiday sales slow down but the bills tied to them keep arriving.

For seasonal businesses, December can look like the best month of the year on paper. January is when the invoices for that strong month come due, often while sales are slower. A short conversation now can help a client see which expenses will carry into January and whether they will have enough cash on hand when those bills land.

A Simple Four-Week January Forecast

You do not need a complex model or a finance background to walk through this. You need three numbers for each week: the cash the business starts with, the deposits it expects, and the bills it has to pay.

Hypothetical example: a seasonal restaurant

The following is a hypothetical example for illustration only. Imagine a restaurant that does strong holiday party and catering business in December. Going into January, the owner expects:

• Opening cash of $42,000 on January 1
• Slower sales after New Year’s
• Holiday vendor invoices for food, beverage, and rented equipment, split across two weeks
• Payroll of $12,000 every other week
• Rent of $9,000 due in the second week

The owner also wants to keep at least $20,000 in the account as a safety cushion.

Week three is the tightest. Payroll, the second round of vendor invoices, and sales tax land together while deposits are at their lowest. Ending cash drops to $9,000, well below the owner’s $20,000 cushion. The account never goes negative, but one slow weekend or one surprise repair could change that.

Spotting a gap that persists

Now look at week four. The late catering payment arrives and cash recovers to $15,000. That is still $5,000 short of the cushion.

This is the pattern to watch for. A dip that fills back in once an expected receipt arrives is usually a timing issue the owner can manage. A gap that stays open even after the expected money comes in suggests the business may need more working capital than its January sales will provide.

Use a conservative sales estimate

The forecast is only as useful as its deposit numbers. Encourage clients not to project January using December’s pace. A better starting point is what the business actually deposited last January, trimmed by an amount the owner considers realistic for a slow month.

If the forecast still works with cautious numbers, the owner can plan with more confidence. If it only works with optimistic numbers, that is worth knowing in November rather than in the middle of January.

The same exercise for a retailer

A retailer expecting post-holiday returns can use the same four columns with one change. Add expected refunds as their own line, since they reduce deposits in the first weeks of January. At the same time, the retailer may owe suppliers for holiday inventory and need to reorder stock for spring. Seeing those pieces side by side shows whether the early January dip is temporary or carries through the month.

Four Questions to Ask in November

1. Which holiday-related invoices will you still be paying in January, and when are they due?
2. How did your deposits last January compare with December?
3. Which week in January has payroll, rent, and vendor payments landing close together?
4. What is the minimum cash you like to keep in the account, and could January push you below it?

One Natural Opener for Your Next Call

“Before things get busy, I’m asking my seasonal clients one question: when the December invoices come due in January, do you know which week will be the tightest?”

When to Suggest a Conversation With an ARF Loan Consultant

The forecast gives you a practical reason to bring up financing, or a clear reason not to. If the numbers show a brief dip that recovers once receipts arrive, the client may only need to adjust payment timing with a vendor.

If the numbers show a gap that persists under conservative assumptions, or the tightest week falls below the owner’s cushion and stays there, that is a good moment to suggest a conversation with an ARF Loan Consultant. The consultant can review the situation and discuss whether a financing option may fit. Any approval and terms depend on that review, so your role is simply to connect the client with someone who can look at the details.

Raising this in November also gives the client time. Talking through options before the gap appears leaves more room to think clearly than waiting until payroll is due.

Your Next Step

Pick one seasonal client this week. Schedule a November check-in and walk through a four-week January forecast together. If you identify a financing need, bring it to your ARF Loan Consultant so the conversation can start before January arrives.