What is the 2026 holiday sales forecast?

eMarketer and Salesforce project holiday retail sales will grow 4.1% to $1.41 trillion, up from $1.35 trillion in 2025 but below the 4.3% annual average. eMarketer expects holiday growth to lag because of inflation, tariffs and consumer anxiety (Talk Business & Politics).

Shoppers are cautious, but they’re still spending:

• 7% are more price-sensitive than last year.
• 7% plan to shop earlier to find better deals.
• 2% will compare prices across retailers.
• 90% expect higher prices to affect how they shop.

Online holiday sales are expected to top $300 billion for the first time, with mobile making up 58% of online sales (Talk Business & Politics).

Why is the 2026 holiday shopping season shorter?

Thanksgiving falls on November 26, so Small Business Saturday lands on November 28. That leaves just 27 days until Christmas and fewer full shopping weekends than in many years.

Meanwhile, big retailers pull spending forward with October events such as Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days on October 6 and 7 in 2026. Small businesses that wait until late November compete for a smaller share of what’s left. Inventory needs to be ordered, received and on the shelf earlier than usual.

How are tariffs and costs affecting small business holiday plans?

Small businesses are paying more for what they sell. 70% report higher costs tied directly to tariffs, and 60% have raised prices in response (37 Oaks). That means the same holiday order costs more cash up front than it did a year ago.

Marketing costs are rising too. Impression costs on Meta jumped about 20% year over year, while Google search ad costs rose about 3%. A holiday plan that worked in 2025 likely needs a bigger budget in 2026.

Which small businesses need holiday financing?

Any business that has to spend before it sells. These five groups feel it most:

1. Retailers and boutiques buying holiday inventory in October and November, often at tariff-inflated prices.
2. E-commerce sellers stocking up for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday online sales are forecast at $16.27 billion, up 7.4% (Talk Business & Politics).
3. Restaurants, caterers and event venues booking holiday parties and hiring seasonal staff before peak weeks.
4. Seasonal service businesses such as heating repair, snow removal and holiday lighting, which add crews and equipment as the weather turns.
5. Wholesalers and distributors who pay suppliers weeks before their retail customers pay them.

What happens to small business cash flow after the holidays?

Cash can get tight in January even after a strong December. Returns arrive, sales slow, and year-end bills come due. Businesses that spent heavily on inventory may also be holding leftover stock.

That’s why flexible financing matters. A business that can draw funds for holiday inventory and then pay down the balance from December sales keeps a cushion for the slow months.

When should referral partners start the holiday financing conversation?

Now. Funding is most useful before a client places their largest orders and makes seasonal hires. A few conversation starters:

• “How does your holiday inventory order compare to last year, now that costs are up?”
• “Are you adding seasonal staff this year?”
• “How did cash flow look last January?”

Clients who answer with a big number, a staffing plan or a tough January are good candidates for a working capital review.

How ARF Financial helps with holiday cash flow

ARF Financial offers bank loans and revolving lines of credit with fixed weekly payments, not merchant cash advances. For seasonal needs:

• Elevate Bankroll is a revolving line of credit for businesses with three or more years under the same ownership. Owners make unlimited draws during a 12-month revolving period, pay down principal when holiday sales come in, and can use an interest-only period to lower payments during the busiest weeks. There’s no prepayment penalty.
• IO-Bankroll gives larger, established businesses interest-only payments on the outstanding balance for up to a year, with unlimited draws during the revolving period.
• Working Capital Loans cover seasonal operating capital, inventory, marketing and staffing with fixed terms up to 36 months.

Many ARF products offer approval decisions within 24 to 48 hours, so there’s still time to fund holiday orders. ARF sizes each line or loan to what the business can repay comfortably, so clients get the cash they need without overextending. All financing is subject to credit approval and approved industries.

To submit a client for review before their holiday orders go in, reach out to your ARF Financial representative today. Not yet a referral partner? Join the Loan Stars Referral Partner Program