What the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Predicts for 2026

As we turn the page into 2026, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is sounding a clear message to small business owners: prepare for a year of mixed opportunities and ongoing challenges. In the Small Business Update: Preparing for 2026 and Beyond, the Chamber’s Chief Policy Officer Neil Bradley breaks down the key policies, economic trends, and business pressures expected to shape the year ahead.

For small business owners, this outlook matters because tax policy, trade, workforce trends, regulation, and technology will all influence hiring, pricing, customer demand, and growth decisions in the coming year. Let’s dive right in.

Tax Relief and Policy Shifts Bring Stability

One of the most impactful developments highlighted by the Chamber is recent tax reform under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which avoided major tax hikes and introduced long-term incentives for small businesses. As Neil Bradley explains, the bill made the 20 percent pass-through deduction permanent, protecting the reduced tax rate that many small business owners rely on. This provision helps owners retain more earnings for investment and expansion.

The update also includes same-year deductions for research and development costs and 100 percent capital expensing for owned business equipment and vehicles, which can enhance cash flow and lower overall tax liability for investments made now. For small businesses looking to upgrade technology or equipment in 2026, these incentives could be really valuable.

Tariffs, Trade Tensions, and Global Pressures

While the tax landscape brings room for optimism, international trade tensions pose ongoing uncertainty. Bradley notes that current tariff levels remain significantly elevated, contributing to inflationary pressure and higher supply chain costs. Small business owners dealing with imported goods could continue to feel that squeeze well into the new year.

If the Supreme Court were to strike down certain tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act(IEEPA), some firms might seek refunds for tariffs paid, although the legal approach and timeline remain unclear. This legal uncertainty adds complexity to pricing, inventory, and cost planning for many small retailers and manufacturers.

Workforce Challenges: Immigration, Skills Gaps, and Talent Shortages

Workforce challenges remain top of mind going into 2026. Small businesses continue to face labor shortages and difficulty finding qualified staff, a trend many sector surveys confirm across the country. For example, another recent U.S. Chamber forecast shows that many businesses are offering higher wages or incentives for seasonal workers, and a significant portion plan to hire in 2026.

Bradley also highlighted proposed immigration policy changes, including a potential $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, which could disproportionately affect small companies that rely on foreign talent. The Chamber is actively challenging such proposals in court to protect small employers that need access to qualified workers.

To build a stronger talent pipeline in the long run, the Chamber has partnered with the College Board on a new AP Business and Personal Finance course aimed at preparing high school students with workforce-ready skills. This educational initiative is designed to give small business owners a larger pool of job-ready candidates in the years ahead.

AI Adoption and Regulatory Challenges

One of the most striking findings in the Chamber’s update is how widespread AI adoption has become among small businesses: a 2025 U.S. Chamber survey found that 58 percent of businesses are now using generative AI in their day-to-day operations, up from 40 percent in 2024. This rapid increase reflects how essential automation and data tools have become for efficiency and competitiveness.

However, Bradley also cautioned that AI regulations vary widely by state, creating compliance headaches. For small business owners, inconsistent requirements around labeling, content use, and AI disclosures can increase legal risk. The Chamber advocates for national standards so small firms aren’t forced to navigate a patchwork of rules.

Small Business Confidence: Real Growth Ahead?

Beyond the Chamber’s insights, broader economic surveys support a cautiously positive outlook for 2026. A Bank of America survey shows that 74 percent of small and mid-sized business owners expect higher revenue in 2026, and about 60 percent plan to expand operations. This signals confidence despite ongoing challenges like inflation and labor shortages.

What Small Businesses Should Do in 2026

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce paints a nuanced picture for 2026: policy wins like permanent tax deductions and capital expensing create opportunities, but tariff uncertainty, workforce gaps, and evolving regulations (especially around AI) require proactive planning. Small businesses that stay informed, engage with policymakers, and invest in technology and workforce development will be best positioned to compete in the year ahead.

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