Holiday Hiring Set to Hit Weakest Levels Since 2009 — What Small Businesses Should Know

It’s that time of year again! As the 2025 holiday season approaches, small business owners face a hiring environment unlike any in recent memory. According to CNBC, seasonal hiring is projected to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession, signaling a sharp slowdown across the retail and service industries. For small businesses that depend on temporary staff to handle the holiday rush, this could mean stiffer competition for qualified workers — and a need to rethink hiring strategies.

Seasonal Hiring Plummets

Retailers are expected to add fewer than 500,000 seasonal jobs this year, a steep drop from the 600,000 to 700,000 positions typically seen in stronger years, according to CNBC’s analysis. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that employers have announced just 100,800 seasonal hiring plans so far, compared with more than 400,000 at this point in 2024. This sharp decline reflects both weaker demand and a cautious business climate, with many companies holding off on hiring until consumer spending trends become clearer.

The report notes that total U.S. hiring announcements (including permanent and temporary jobs) have reached just 204,939 through September, a 58 percent decline from last year. That makes 2025 the slowest year for hiring plans since 2009, underscoring how much the job market has cooled in just 12 months.

What’s the Broader Labor Picture?

The weak holiday hiring forecast fits into a broader trend of economic caution. Businesses have also announced 946,426 job cuts year-to-date, the highest number since the pandemic-driven layoffs of 2020, according to Business Insider. Meanwhile, job openings have fallen to their lowest level in at least three years, signaling a slowdown that’s hitting multiple sectors — from retail and logistics to hospitality and tech.

For job seekers, that means fewer short-term opportunities. But for small businesses, the dynamic is more complex. While some will struggle to attract workers during peak periods, others may find less competition from big-box retailers or delivery giants that are cutting back on seasonal hiring.

What’s Driving the Pullback?

Several key factors are contributing to this unprecedented hiring slowdown. First, consumer spending remains uncertain heading into the holidays. Retailers are cautious about overextending inventory and payrolls in case shoppers scale back due to inflation or credit concerns.

Second, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to loom large. With fluctuating interest rates and persistent inflation, many employers are tightening their budgets and delaying expansion plans.

And finally, businesses are becoming more focused on efficiency and automation. Rather than bringing on large numbers of short-term employees, many are investing in technology — like AI-powered customer support or inventory management — to maintain productivity without expanding headcount.

Time to Adapt!

For small business owners, the 2025 hiring slowdown offers both challenges and opportunities.
If larger companies are scaling back, smaller employers may face less competition for part-time workers, allowing them to attract talent that might otherwise go to national retailers. However, smaller businesses should also plan more conservatively: Since hiring may be harder and slower, it’s wise to cross-train existing employees and use flexible scheduling to cover busy periods.

This is also a time to focus on retention rather than recruitment. Keeping your current team motivated through incentives, recognition, or small bonuses can prevent costly turnover at the worst possible moment. And by monitoring early-season sales data, businesses can scale staffing gradually, rather than hiring heavily up front and risking payroll inefficiencies if sales fall short. In a season defined by uncertainty, adaptability will be your biggest advantage. And over at the Financial Pantry, we’ll be working hard to keep you as informed as possible on the challenges, opportunities, and breaking news in the small business world.