Inside Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Buyer Survey

Arguably, the most important shopping season is nearly upon us—and Deloitte’s 2025 Retail Holiday Buyer Surveyreveals how retail buyers are navigating an unpredictable landscape. Today we’ll be providing a recap of the survey, focusing on what small business owners need to know (and tips for how to adapt).

Buying Behavior: Proactive Planning Is Key

Retail buyers are already getting ahead of the curve. According to Deloitte, more than half of holiday orders were placed by the end of May—that’s nearly two months earlier than in 2024! This front-loading reflects caution around upcoming trade and supply risks, and it shows how important early planning can be. Seventy percent of buyers also increased inventory in key categories before trade policy shifts were announced, giving them a safety buffer.

Uncertainty Breeds AI Adoption—and Flexibility

In addition to buying early, 78 percent of retail buyers report using AI-enabled tools to optimize buying strategy, especially in the face of shifting tariffs and geopolitics. AI is helping with supply chain management, pricing decisions, and inventory assortment, though only 28 percent said AI improved demand forecasting, which highlights room for tech improvement.

Consumer Behavior: Promotional Windows Shape Sales

Deloitte notes that 76 percent of retail buyers expect consumers to make discretionary purchases primarily during promotional periods, such as Black Friday or holiday flash sales. In other words, for small businesses, it’s increasingly vital to align marketing and product launches around these events.

Optimism Amid Tight Conditions

Despite concerns over inventory and supplier reliability, there’s cautious optimism. About 75 percent of buyers expect consumer sentiment to improve as the holiday season approaches, and average year-over-year holiday sales growth is anticipated at 4.5 percent. That growth may not be massive—but it’s a signal that demand could bounce back if handled wisely.

Key Takeaways for Small Business Owners

Stock Early, Stay Flexible

Deloitte’s data signals that getting your best products in place early, especially before trade shifts, is smart. If possible, manage inventory in ways that allow you to adjust orders or reorder quickly if needed.

Use Tech—But Keep Realistic Expectations

AI tools can be game-changers for demand forecasting, pricing, and supply chain tweaks. But as Deloitte shows, they’re not perfect: look for tools that provide real insights, not just hype.

Plan Promotions Around Major Events

Most consumers are still shopping during sales windows. Build your marketing calendar around Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and similar spikes in traffic. Use your best offers during these periods to grab attention.

Stay Agile and Responsive

The fact that many buyers canceled orders or paused shipments amid uncertainty shows how fast conditions can change. Having flexible contracts, diversified suppliers, or local partners can help you adapt fast.

Watch for Signs of Recovery

If sentiment truly lifts (and Deloitte projects a 4.5 percent increase in holiday sales), a timely promotional push or a refreshed email campaign could create a powerful upside.

Deloitte’s 2025 Retail Holiday Buyer Survey underscores a familiar challenge: uncertainty is the rule this year. But within that framework, three strategies stand out—early preparation, smart use of technology, and promotional alignment. For small business owners, that means planning early, investing in tools that give insights (not just dashboards), and making sure your marketing calendar matches consumer behavior. At ARF Financial, we’ll be with you throughout the holiday season to provide tips, updates, and financial support for your small business. And if you’re looking for small business financing, come check out Bankroll—it’s our ultimate revolving line of credit, designed especially for small businesses like yours.