{"id":53036,"date":"2025-07-11T15:33:34","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T19:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/?p=53036"},"modified":"2025-07-11T15:34:43","modified_gmt":"2025-07-11T19:34:43","slug":"inside-junes-nfib-small-business-optimism-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/inside-junes-nfib-small-business-optimism-index\/","title":{"rendered":"Inside June\u2019s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”53037″ img_size=”large” alignment=”center”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

We love to keep a pulse on how small business owners are feeling, and this quarter it seems they\u2019re just a bit wary. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index<\/a> for June 2025 edged down 0.2 points to 98.6, hanging just above the 51-year average of 98. And while the overall index was steady, several key components signaled shifting trends among small business owners. Let\u2019s take a look at the findings.<\/p>\n

Inventory Levels<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the biggest shifts came from inventory data<\/a>. A net \u20135 percent of owners said inventories were \u201ctoo low\u201d, down six points from May, while 12 percent reported inventories were \u201ctoo high\u201d, nearly doubling from the previous month. This suggests a growing inventory surplus, which could indicate slowing sales or an overestimation of supply.<\/p>\n

Business Outlook & Sales Expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n

The net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell by 3 points<\/a> to 22 percent, although this still ranks above the long-term average of 3 percent. Similarly, expectations for higher real sales volumes declined by 3 points to 7 percent, indicating a more cautious growth outlook.<\/p>\n

Capital Expenditures<\/strong><\/p>\n

Plans for capital spending<\/a> in the next six months dipped slightly to 21 percent, down from 22 percent in May. This reflects small business owners\u2019 hesitancy to invest amid mixed economic signals.<\/p>\n

Labor Market & Compensation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Good help continues to be hard to find, as labor quality remains a top concern. In June, 16 percent of small business owners<\/a> cited the quality of labor as their single biggest problem, unchanged from May. Meanwhile, job openings that could not be filled rose to 36 percent, and 58 percent of owners reported actively hiring, with 86 percent of them saying there were few or no qualified applicants. Despite these challenges, 13 percent of owners plan to create new jobs in the coming months, signaling resilience and long-term optimism.<\/p>\n

Inflation & Input Costs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Inflation appears to be fading as a top-line concern. Only 11 percent of owners cited inflation as their most important business problem\u2014the lowest share since September 2021. This is a positive shift compared to the inflationary pressures seen throughout 2022 and 2023. But something else took its place\u2026 keep reading.<\/p>\n

Taxes & Other Top Problems<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taxes have overtaken inflation<\/a> as the top concern for small business owners, with 19 percent of respondents calling them their number-one issue\u2014the highest level since July 2021. Government regulations and competition from large businesses also ranked high, at 9 percent and 7 percent respectively. Interestingly, concerns over financing and interest rates fell to just 3 percent, showing that while credit conditions may remain tight, they are not front-of-mind for most owners this summer.<\/p>\n

Business Health Perceptions<\/strong><\/p>\n

When asked about their overall business health:<\/p>\n