{"id":46601,"date":"2023-01-11T17:11:11","date_gmt":"2023-01-11T22:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/?p=46601"},"modified":"2023-01-11T17:11:41","modified_gmt":"2023-01-11T22:11:41","slug":"when-will-the-recession-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/when-will-the-recession-start\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will the Recession Start?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\">[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;46602&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]We\u2019ve been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/are-we-headed-for-recession\/?urlsource=blog\">talking about the recession<\/a> for what <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/is-your-business-ready-for-a-recession\/?urlsource=blog\">seems like ages<\/a>. We have not, however, been able to truly define <em>when <\/em>it\u2019s going to happen. But new reporting from various financial experts suggests something both gloomy and promising at once: the promise of a recession, but not until the end of 2023 (possibly even later than that). Let\u2019s dive into what the pros are saying, shall we?\r\n\r\n<strong>Is it avoidable\u2026 or isn\u2019t it?<\/strong>\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s not likely we\u2019ll be able to avoid a recession the way many once thought possible. Policies that could potentially help deter a recession would only make inflation worse, and that\u2019s not an option for consumers these days. And it would only be kicking the can down the road for an even harsher recession later on. Low inflation, at least in the eyes of the Federal Reserve, is the name of the game. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20220826a.htm\">A speech<\/a> from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell states \u201cHistory shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.\u201d While the latest numbers on inflation (just released on December 13, 2022) do <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2022\/12\/13\/business\/november-inflation-report\" class=\"broken_link\">show signs of cooling off<\/a>, we can\u2019t stop our attempts to slow it even further now. There\u2019s also been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/09\/28\/economy\/recession-global-economy\">reporting <\/a>from the research firm Ned Davis that there\u2019s a 98 percent chance of a global recession, based on their probability model.\r\n\r\n<strong>When will it hit?<\/strong>\r\n\r\nAs reported by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2022\/12\/13\/business\/november-inflation-report\" class=\"broken_link\">New York Times<\/a>, \u201cThe yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note, which closely tracks expectations for Fed rate moves, fell sharply on Tuesday, as investors dialed back expectations for further interest rate increases. As the Fed has continued its campaign to increase rates to bring down inflation, the yield on the two-year bond has risen well above the 10-year equivalent, a rare but reliable sign of a recession.\u201d\r\n\r\nSince the Federal Reserve is expected to continue tightening its belt by raising interest rates into 2023, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/billconerly\/2022\/11\/01\/the-recession-will-begin-late-2023-or-early-2024\/?sh=557668631add\" class=\"broken_link\">Forbes <\/a>is projecting a recession to hit the U.S. in late 2023 or even early 2024. Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire investor, had a similar projection when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/09\/28\/stanley-druckenmiller-sees-hard-landing-in-2023-with-a-possible-deeper-recession-than-many-expect.html\">interviewed <\/a>in late September 2022 at CNBC\u2019s Delivering Alpha Investor Summit: \u201cI will be stunned if we don\u2019t have recession in \u201923. I don\u2019t know the timing but certainly by the end of \u201923. I will not be surprised if it\u2019s not larger than the so called average garden variety.\u201d\r\n\r\nWhile a recession may be inevitable, there are steps your business can take to help reduce the impact. Check out our article \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/is-your-business-ready-for-a-recession\/\">Is Your Business Ready for a Recession?<\/a>\u201d for top tips on making sure your business is prepared.\r\n\r\nReaching your business goals is closer than you think thanks to the industry-leading financial products we offer at ARF Financial. Whether you\u2019re looking for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/loans-by-product\/revolving-line-of-credit\/?urlsource=blog\">revolving line of credit<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/loans-by-product\/interest-only-flex-pay-loan\/?urlsource=blog\">interest-only Flex Pay loan<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/loans-by-product\/bridge-loans\/?urlsource=blog\">bridge loan<\/a>, or more, we\u2019re ready to help fund your success. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/?urlsource=blog\">Visit us today<\/a> to see for yourself why thousands of small businesses have turned to ARF Financial for all their financing needs.\r\n\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px;\">Your privacy is important to us. ARF Financial will never sell or rent your information to any third party.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/privacy\/?utm_source=Outbrain&amp;utm_medium=OutbrainBlog&amp;utm_term=Outbrain&amp;utm_content=GoingGreen&amp;utm_campaign=GoingGreen\">Click here<\/a>\u00a0for more information about our privacy policy.<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<!-- \/wp:post-content --><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;46602&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]We\u2019ve been talking about the recession for&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":46602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[111],"tags":[1040,398,402,400,399,443,386,1039,535,220,213,943,1042,173,401,224,222,172,1041,1038,142],"class_list":{"0":"post-46601","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business-financing","8":"tag-2023-recession","9":"tag-affordable-business-loans","10":"tag-affordable-small-business-growth","11":"tag-business-expansion","12":"tag-business-growth","13":"tag-business-line-of-credit","14":"tag-business-loans","15":"tag-economic-recession","16":"tag-equipment-leasing","17":"tag-flex-pay-loans","18":"tag-line-of-credit","19":"tag-operations","20":"tag-recession-preparation","21":"tag-restaurant-funding","22":"tag-small-business-expansion","23":"tag-small-business-financing","24":"tag-small-business-funding","25":"tag-small-business-growth","26":"tag-small-business-recession","27":"tag-when-will-the-recession-start","28":"tag-working-capital"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>When Will the Recession Start? 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