{"id":45077,"date":"2022-09-21T17:31:35","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T21:31:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/?p=45077"},"modified":"2022-09-21T22:30:26","modified_gmt":"2022-09-22T02:30:26","slug":"are-we-headed-for-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/are-we-headed-for-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Are We Headed for Recession?\ufffc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img width=\"920\" height=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ARF-Blog-09232022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45078\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ARF-Blog-09232022.jpg 920w, https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ARF-Blog-09232022-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ARF-Blog-09232022-768x351.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 920px) 100vw, 920px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Recession obsession. Lately, it seems like all we can talk or think about is the possibility of yet another recession\u2014at a time when it still doesn\u2019t feel like we fully recovered from the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/g\/great-recession.asp\" class=\"broken_link\"> last one<\/a>. We are getting mixed messages, with economists saying a recession is both unavoidable and unlikely in the same breath. So, what\u2019s the deal? Are we headed for recession or safe (for the time being)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;There are two schools of thought here \u2013 and they both depend on how we\u2019re outlining what a recession actually is. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/recession.asp\" class=\"broken_link\">Investopedia<\/a>, \u201cA recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. Because recessions often last six months or more, one popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in a country&#8217;s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constitute a recession.\u201d With that being said, the United States will have entered a recession in the beginning of summer in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sounds fairly clear-cut, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not if you ask the agency that outlines <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/businesscycle.asp\" class=\"broken_link\">business cycles<\/a>, the National Bureau of Economic Research (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/\">NBER<\/a>). \u201cThe NBER&#8217;s traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months, according to their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating\/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions\">website<\/a>. The main reason the NBER would argue against the idea that we\u2019re in a recession is two-fold: one, we\u2019re seeing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-unemployment-rate-fall-35-2022-08-05\/\">higher-than-expected<\/a> job growth; and two, corporate earnings are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-25\/us-corporate-profits-soar-taking-margins-to-widest-since-1950\" class=\"broken_link\">skyrocketing<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we\u2019re not in a recession now, signs point to one on the horizon in 2023\u2013a recession <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/08\/30\/steve-hanke-were-going-to-have-one-whopper-of-a-recession-in-2023.html\">some are predicting<\/a> to be a \u201cwhopper.\u201d&nbsp; The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation, which is also at record highs. And why is that? Inflation is essentially when supply and demand are out of sync. After pandemic restrictions loosened, the consumer demand for items that were unnecessary during lockdown exploded; however, supply was still waning. High demand plus low supply resulted in rising prices and worker wages, which is why we\u2019re seeing inflation at such unprecedented rates. To bring prices down from their astronomical levels, the Federal Reserve had to step in and raise interest rates. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Business\/explainer-inflation-high-happened-time-reached-level\/story?id=88108218\">ABC News.com<\/a>, \u201cIn theory, the rate hikes should cut demand, slow down the economy and lower inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What does inflation have to do with a recession, then? The two are linked in some respects. High inflation is usually an indicator of a looming recession because businesses focus less on production and more on increasing their prices. When the Federal Reserve turns to interest rate hikes as a method of combating inflation surges, that\u2019s generally seen as a recession trigger\u2013because interest rate hikes are essentially <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/101615\/what-happens-if-interest-rates-increase-too-quickly.asp\" class=\"broken_link\">slowing down the economy<\/a>: when the cost of money increases too sharply, economic growth can slow just as sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there are arguments on both sides, the general consensus is clear: If you don\u2019t think we\u2019re in a recession at the moment, just wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/?urlsource=blog\">ARF Financial<\/a> has been leading the small-business loan industry for decades, helping secure millions of dollars in loans to help entrepreneurs and business owners reach their fullest potential. Once a loan is approved, we deliver immediate access to your funds, fixed payments, and flexible terms. Plus, you can defer up to 50 percent of your principal for even lower payments now. Not only do we offer best-in-class loan products, we\u2019ve also always got a great deal cooking. Check out our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arffinancial.com\/development\/working-with-us\/current-offers\/?urlsource=blog\">current offers<\/a> to learn what perks we\u2019re presenting this month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recession obsession. Lately, it seems like all we can talk&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":45078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[128],"tags":[398,402,400,399,443,386,535,220,213,944,943,345,116,173,536,117,597,594,516,401,224,222,172],"class_list":{"0":"post-45077","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-day-to-day-business-operations","8":"tag-affordable-business-loans","9":"tag-affordable-small-business-growth","10":"tag-business-expansion","11":"tag-business-growth","12":"tag-business-line-of-credit","13":"tag-business-loans","14":"tag-equipment-leasing","15":"tag-flex-pay-loans","16":"tag-line-of-credit","17":"tag-marketing","18":"tag-operations","19":"tag-restaurant-expansion","20":"tag-restaurant-financing","21":"tag-restaurant-funding","22":"tag-restaurant-leasing","23":"tag-restaurant-loans","24":"tag-restaurant-reopening","25":"tag-restaurant-reopneing","26":"tag-restaurant-trends","27":"tag-small-business-expansion","28":"tag-small-business-financing","29":"tag-small-business-funding","30":"tag-small-business-growth"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are We Headed for Recession?\ufffc - ARF Financial<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are We Headed for Recession? 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